Donald Trump and Ranked Choice Voting
Virginia Republicans set to test fire a new method of nomination and it's already producing better results.
We have a new ride here in Election Nerd Disneyland and it’s called Ranked Choice Voting.
So, how’s it going?
Well, I’m actually optimistic about the impact its having on the candidates and the voters.
In speaking with several Republican candidates and campaigns about what’s “really going on”, you get the sense that no one knows what the outcome of the Republican Unassembled Convention will be.
Good.
It’s either “we’re cautiously optimistic” or “yeah but 40% of the delegates have never voted in a Republican primary before” or “it all depends on who shows up” or candidates openly campaigning for second.
Basically, there’s a lot of figurin’ goin’ on because no one knows how this format will work out in the end. Campaigns are trying to figure out not only where their candidate is relative to getting the most #1 votes, but also how that candidate performs with other candidates’ voters.
Again, GOOD.
Ranked Choice Voting could be a solution to our governing problems in that candidates no longer have to finish first with a plurality, they have to win an outright majority of primary voters. And that math makes for change.
Consider how Ranked Choice Voting would have played out in the 2016 Republican nomination for President.
It, too, was a crowded field like Virginia’s and it also had basically four main candidates in Trump, Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, and John Kasich.
What I remember vividly about that race was that while Donald Trump was winning primaries and caucuses, he wasn't blowing the field away. He was usually in the low to mid 30s - which is all he needed to do to claim victory and move to the next battle.
Remember, the Donald kept saying he was leading the polls. He didn’t go out on stage, Fox News, and Twitter to say “Look at me! I’m in the upper 20s!” No, he said “I’m winning!” He set the narrative - this is what winning looks like.
And that’s what he did. He targeted enough voters to show up in order to win.
Imagine if Trump had to have finished with majorities in each primary and caucus in order to claim victory. That would have been a very different campaign and, yes, a very different candidate.
Q - What primary was Trump’s first majority win? Mariana Islands on March 15th.
Q - How many contests preceded that one? 33.
He would have behaved and performed very differently in order to win those other 33 states and territories to pile up the delegates to win the nomination.
Let’s return to Virginia since its Republican Party is actually using Ranked Choice Voting and then apply the 2016 Presidential Primary results to figure out where Saturday voting will end up.
That primary was on March 1, 2016.
Here’s the breakdown:
Donald Trump - 34.8
Marco Rubio - 31.98
Ted Cruz - 16.69
John Kasich - 9.5
Ben Carson - 5.8
One could make a very strong case that Marco Rubio could have won Virginia narrowly over Donald Trump in March of ‘16.
Now, take that crowded primary field and apply those voters to the field of Amanda Chase, Kirk Cox, Pete Snyder, and Glenn Youngkin. Then figure out where those voters RANK their opponents.
With Chase and Snyder openly campaigning for and possibly dividing up Virginia Trump voters, that’s hard math to a majority without winning the down ballot ranking.
But have they campaigned for that? Snyder perhaps. Chase? No. She has not. This format does not favor her.
Kirk Cox is openly asking for voters to ballot him at #2 if he is not their #1. That is a not so subtle shift in electoral dynamics. He’s even openly praising his opponents in his campaign communications. Sure, Cox is doing it to win votes but there’s also nothing inauthentic about it - he’s a nice guy and usually does have something nice to say about his opponents. But in this election format, Cox actually said it.
Then there’s Glenn Youngkin who has signed up a reported 16-17,000 delegates to this convention. Many of those delegates, as other campaigns eagerly note, have not participated in Republican primaries in Virginia before. Maybe they are new to Virginia or maybe they have never been asked, but maybe they show up and vote because they’re just sick and tired of the Virginia GOP losing. Then again, maybe they just don’t show up. But if they do…who is their second and third ballot choice?
Notice how just about all the attack ads are being conducted by these shadow groups that don’t have any candidate attached to them? They’re getting funding from somewhere but no one is taking credit for the attacks, are they?
Nope. That leads to subtraction down ballot.
In 2016, Donald Trump openly, brazenly, and with reckless abandon bullied his way to the nomination. It was the Shock and Awe treatment of his opponents - Low Energy Jeb, Little Marco, at first 2016 Lyin’ Ted Cruz and then 2018 Beautiful Ted.
Here's a full accounting of all the Trump insults.
It was not only breathtaking but it worked - to a degree. Part of Trump’s shtick and appeal was that he got away with openly insulting the elites and the “establishment.”
However, that degree was a plurality. And because Trump won by being an insulting bully, it spawned a whole industry of boorish behavior. That was accepted and repeated because it worked when the goal was winning the Electoral College.
But in Virginia this weekend candidates need a majority of the convention delegates. Yes, I know the convention system has weighted votes by locality and we won’t know the votes for days because the Republican Party of Virginia decided to…oh, never mind it’s too messed up to recount.
The fact of the matter is that Virginia Republicans have changed the manner of their nomination and it’s creating change. They are breaking away - if only for this campaign season - from a party of subtraction to one of addition.
We’ll see how this new ride of Ranked Choice Voting plays out here in Election Nerd Disneyland.
To date, I have heard no complaints about RCV. Candidates, campaigns, and voters seem to have embraced the opportunity to more fully express themselves on their ballot.
We’re a nation and a people who like freedom and choice. So far, Ranked Choice Voting is working well.
It’s now up to the Republican Party of Virginia to conduct the Unassembled Conventions and accurately count the ballots. What could possibly go wrong?
This is why amusement parks tell you to keep your arms in and secure your safety harness.
Scene from next week while the votes are tabulated:
Trivia question from Caddyshack - which team won the final hole?
If you liked this post from Cold Fusion, why not share it?